A new poll from the prediction market operator Kalshi shows that most Americans want access to prediction markets and would rather see them overseen by the federal government instead of state gambling regulators.

The timing isn’t a coincidence. The results come at a time when gaming commissions in several states are debating whether these markets should fall under their authority, a decision that could change how the platforms work.

The survey was run by Axis Research from September 18 to 23, 2025, and included 1,219 voters from across the country. According to the memo cited by Kalshi, “Even if I don’t participate in these types of markets, I believe all Americans should have access and the option to decide for themselves,” reportedly earned agreement from 89% of respondents. The company says the results show broad public support for keeping prediction markets available.

According to the study, 70% of people in the survey said Americans should be able to invest in specific outcomes, including elections and agricultural futures. The memo says support crosses party lines, with approval from 75% of Republicans and 71% of Democrats.

The poll also shows that most respondents see prediction markets as financial tools rather than gambling as 89% said buying stocks, mutual funds, and commodities contracts is a financial investment rather than a form of gambling. When asked who should regulate prediction markets, 79% preferred federal regulators, while only 21% chose state gaming commissions.

Kalshi’s Head of Corporate Development, Sara Slane, said the results make a strong case for keeping prediction markets under federal oversight through the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. “Americans want access to prediction markets reliably regulated by financial experts in the federal government, not 50 different ill-equipped state gaming commissions,” she said.

“American voters want the freedom to choose how to invest their own money without state-level bureaucrats interfering.” Slane added that “the current federal regulatory structure is best equipped to oversee this financial activity, not an unpredictable state regulatory patchwork,” and said the company supports a system in which “every American, no matter where they live, should be able to make financial decisions for themselves without state casino regulators getting in the way.”

The poll also found that many people are worried about what could happen if regulation shifts to the states. The memo says 82% agreed that having 50 different state rules would create a messy patchwork that puts extra burdens on consumers and makes things harder for middle and lower income households. While 83% said inconsistent state rules would cause confusion, and another 83% agreed that a state by state approach could end up with looser rules that open the door to corruption.

Context and potential bias of Kalshi poll

Since the data was released by Kalshi, a platform that would clearly benefit from staying under federal oversight, some observers may see the poll’s framing as supporting the company’s own goals.

The press release points out public agreement with statements that describe state regulation as confusing, corrupt, or not well equipped, while presenting federal regulators as competent and fair. When questions are framed this way, the results can end up reinforcing the sponsor’s preferred regulatory outcome.

Regulatory dispute

Adding to the context, Kalshi is also dealing with legal fights in several states over whether its contracts should be treated as sports bets that fall under state gambling rules rather than as federally regulated event contracts.

States such as Nevada and New Jersey have issued cease and desist orders, and Kalshi has responded by suing the regulators and arguing that its contracts fall entirely under the CFTC’s authority. At least five state lawsuits claim that Kalshi’s products are actually illegal sports wagers dressed up as financial derivatives.

Featured image: Kalshi

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